MILWAUKEE — In the hours after a would-be assassin fired a bullet through former President Donald Trump’s ear, Panfilo DiCenzo, a 40-year-old Democratic voter from Pittsburgh, drew a simple conclusion about the political effect of the attack: “It definitely is good for Trump.”
DiCenzo reasoned that undecided voters may “be more likely to vote for him out of sympathy” and that “especially with the upheaval in the Democratic Party, you know, more and more people I think are a little bit confused as to who to vote for.”
At a time when President Joe Biden has been struggling to shore up support with fellow Democrats following a miserable June debate performance and shaky clean-up effort, some professional Democratic political operatives said Saturday’s shooting will end up sealing the incumbent’s electoral fate.
“We’re so beyond f—ed,” one longtime Democratic insider said, noting that the image of Trump thrusting his fist in the air, with blood dramatically smeared across his face, will be indelible.
“The presidential contest ended last night,” said a veteran Democratic consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to give a candid assessment of his own party’s standing less than four months before the election.
“Now it’s time to focus on keeping the Senate and trying to pick up the House,” he said. “The only positive thing to come out of last night for Democrats is we are no longer talking about Joe Biden’s age today.”
A Biden campaign spokesperson did not respond to NBC News’ request for comment on how the attempted assassination of Trump might affect the dynamics of their rematch. A White House spokesperson declined to comment.
But in nearly a dozen interviews with Democratic strategists, operatives, aides and voters, there was a clear divide between Democrats who believe the attempt to kill Trump will end up helping him and those who say it won’t change much. Few suggested that it would improve Biden’s chances.
Cornell Belcher, a pollster who worked for former President Barack Obama, said that neither the shooting nor the debate would ultimately restructure a race that has been close all along. In particular, he said, there would be no dramatic shift among swing voters whose preferences will be important in the states that determine the election.
“Does that moderate, suburban, college-educated mom who is worried about how to pay for college for her daughter and whether her daughter will have as many rights in her life as she has had in hers — does the shooting make her go, ‘Oh my God! I’m going to vote for Trump!’ No,” he said.
One Democratic strategist who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns and on Capitol Hill said that the physical targeting of Trump robs Biden of his main argument against the former president. Biden, the strategist pointed out, has tried to convince voters that Trump is so extreme that he presents a threat to democracy.
“That message is dead,” the strategist said, after a gunman tried to kill the nominee of one of the two major parties. The bullet that struck Trump “probably saved Biden’s nomination” by freezing Democratic calls for him to step aside and “doomed his re-election.”
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, echoed that sentiment.
“I’m very concerned that the net effect of the Republican convention will be neutralizing the core democracy critique of Trump — a felon who fomented a violent insurrection, tried to block the peaceful transfer of power, and said the Constitution may need to be terminated,” he said.
“There is a race to define the democracy critique of Trump as legitimate,” Green added, “and we all need to make clear now that protecting democracy is the exact opposite of political violence.”
Most of those who questioned whether Trump would ultimately benefit politically from the attempt on his life — and his reaction to it — framed their own views as counterintuitive or at least at odds with the majority of Democrats in their circles.
One Biden ally said the close call for Trump would further solidify his base without bringing him new voters. Biden has responded to chaotic times by demonstrating steady leadership, the ally said, adding the prediction that Biden would lift a pause on his campaigning during the Republican convention this week.
A second veteran Democratic strategist said that his first-blush impression was that the shooting would help Trump but that he had reconsidered.
“Politically, the notion that this is going to help Trump is flawed. I think this reminds them that he is a chaos maker,” the strategist said. “This is when we need someone to bring us together.”
He added that he believes Republicans run a political risk if the speakers at the convention echo Trump’s past calls for retribution instead of tamping down their rhetoric.
A Democratic operative with experience as a senior presidential campaign adviser predicted there would be a “slight immediate bump” for Trump with certain demographic groups. “But fundamentally, I think the race stays where it has always been. And we’ve got, like, many moons still to go, as crazy as that seems.”
The operative said it is “so bizarre” that “many people on my side are firmly in the camp of [Biden] can’t win,” describing that view as a “vibes analysis” without a “rational basis.”
Public polls have shown the election is closely contested in enough swing states that either candidate could assemble an electoral college majority.
A Trump spokesperson did not reply to NBC News’ request for comment on whether the campaign views the attempted assassination as an asset on the campaign trail. But Trump used the already-iconic photo of him raising his fist in the air, while surrounded by his protective detail, in a fundraising appeal Sunday. A full-color American flag appears in the background of a black-and-white version of the photo used to pitch for donations. The words “NEVER SURRENDER” are emblazoned across the top of the image.
For one veteran of Democratic congressional campaigns, that picture says it all.
“The clear effect of this assassination attempt is that it officially thrust Donald Trump out of politics and into martyrdom,” this person said. “They’re framing this as an attack on MAGA and not on Trump — even more powerful. This is literally Biblical stuff we’re talking about.”
Democrats will “never be able to compete with that level of enthusiasm among base voters,” the person added. “So yeah, we’re even more f—ed with Biden. … And relying on Trump to be a galvanizing, unifying enemy won’t work as well.”